Analyzing Global Developments 
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Growth in the World Population to 1340
The world experienced considerable human population growth during the first millennium of the Common Era in spite of occasional downturns, such as those resulting from climate change in Asia and Europe between 200 CE and 600 CE and the decline of the Roman and Han Empires. Overall, however, an upward trajectory occurred, though it averaged out to a mere 0.06 percent per year. For the period from 1750 to 1950, that percentage increased to a little more than 0.5 percent per year, and since 1950, the number has risen to 1.75 percent per year. Even so, as we will see in the next chapter, the major populations in the Afro-Eurasian landmass were terrified by the loss of life that accompanied the spread of the Black Death across this immense area.
Since the Afro-Eurasian recovery from the Black Death, the world’s population has been on a steady increase, spectacularly so in the twentieth century, the result of more abundant food supplies, more accurate knowledge of the spread of diseases and a resulting control of epidemic diseases, and a general rise in the standards of living. The long-term impact of the pandemic that reached across the globe in 2020 remains to be seen. COVID-19 has tested what scientists thought they knew about the spread of epidemic diseases and has provided firsthand experience of their lopsided demographic impacts (in terms of region, age, and so on), as well as the dramatic social and economic crises such diseases and the responses to them can bring.
Regional Human Population (in millions) |
||||||
Year |
Asia |
Europe |
Africa |
Americas |
Oceania |
World |
400 BCE |
97 |
30 |
17 |
8 |
1 |
153 |
1 CE |
172 |
41 |
26 |
12 |
1 |
252 |
200 |
160 |
55 |
30 |
11 |
1 |
257 |
600 |
136 |
31 |
24 |
16 |
1 |
208 |
1000 |
154 |
41 |
39 |
18 |
1 |
253 |
1200 |
260 |
64 |
48 |
26 |
2 |
400 |
1340 |
240 |
88 |
80 |
32 |
2 |
442 |
QUESTIONS FOR ANALYSIS
- Why was the rate of population growth so limited in premodern times?
- Comparing the population size of the regions in 1340, what do the numbers tell us about where the largest share of wealth and power resided? How does this compare with earlier eras in the chart?
- Why was the population of the Americas in 1340 so small considering its large territorial size?
- Why were the peoples living in the Afro-Eurasian landmass so vulnerable to epidemic diseases in the fourteenth century?
- How do changes in global population relate to the developments tracked in this chapter: a maritime revolution; a more integrally connected Africa; a thriving Abbasid caliphate; and an expanding Mongol Empire?
Source: Massimo Livi-Bacci, A Concise History of World Population (Malden, MA: Wiley-Blackwell, 2012), p. 25.